[Bp_ipv6] Can we do the math? ( was [MEAC ICANN] Fwd: Interesting IPv6 metrics)

Guillermo Cicileo gcicileo at gmail.com
Thu Aug 25 10:54:08 EDT 2016


Hi Marco:

Have you tried the "interactive economic model" we have at LACNIC? It's a
sort of excel model that you mentioned. You can play with many variables to
estimate the costs of different solutions:

http://stats.labs.lacnic.net/PROYECTOCAF/modelo/

The current values are from Latin American ISPs, but you can tune it for
different economies (it's not in English yet, but I think you could
understand the variables).

The model is explained in chapter 6 of the CAF-LACNIC study (and chapter 5
also):
http://portalipv6.lacnic.net/wp-content/caf-lacnic/CAF-LACNIC-IPv6-Deployment-Social-Economic-Development-in-LAC.pdf

Please tell me what you think.

Regards,

      Guillermo.

On Thu, Aug 25, 2016 at 8:18 AM, Marco Hogewoning <marcoh at ripe.net> wrote:

> (This may not reflect my employers opinion or even reality as a whole)
>
> All,
>
> Exec summary: 5 year ROI on IPv6 for a larger-than-life mobile carrier in
> the US can be gestimated at 225 million USD.
>
> Disclaimer: I might be off by a zero or two (factor 10/100) as a result of
> assumptions or flaky math :)
>
> Can’t find the original email on this thread, but somewhere Jan wrote:
>
> > I asked Cameron Byrne from T-Mobile USA how many mobile devices do they
> > have now on their network using IPv6 connectivity and his estimation was
> > around 48 million.
> >
> > Cheers, Jan
>
> Was chatting with Silvia the other day, wondering if we can piece it
> together….
>
> Curious mind wants to know:
>
> - How many customers are in this network?
>
> The answer (Q2 financial reporting) is 67,3 million (call it 67 for ease)
>
> We have them apparently also on record saying 50% of the traffic is IPv6.
> This doesn’t say much unless we know:
>
> - How much traffic is on that network?
>
> Now, this needs a bit of reading between the lines and guessing, but the
> Q2 investor report has one interesting bit where they brag on quality:
>
>         "In the second quarter of 2016, T-Mobile’s average 4G LTE download
> speed was 22.4 Mbps compared to Verizon at “
>
> So the average customer has 22 Mbps, and 67 million of them ((22*10^6) *(
> 67 * 10^6)) gives around 1,5 petabit/s, which is a rather big number
>
> In fact unlikely that all of them are pushing 22 mb _all_ of the time and
> I guess we can figure in some oversubscription. Conservative estimate of
> 1:1000 would bring the total average traffic down to 1,4 terabit/s, 50% of
> which is IPv6 :) (more likely the overbooking is a factor 10 higher, but
> let’s stick to this).
>
> - How much does this cost to transport that amount of bits?
>
> We don’t know the number for T-mobile, but we have a credible source in
> Swisscom:
>
>         http://www.swissipv6council.ch/sites/default/files/docs/
> map_martin_gysi_ipv6_council.pdf says difference is 6350 CHF.
>
> So, passing 1 gb/s through CGN costs 8300 USD, shipping the same amount of
> traffic on IPv6 is only 1700 (which btw is 5 times, cheaper, not 6 as often
> claimed by hearsay on social media).
>
> Putting this all together:
>
> If 50% of the traffic (0.7 tbit/s) really has moved, the cost saving in
> transport is in the order of 4.6 million USD per month at the current rate.
>
> Now of course this meant that a) the had a huge spend on IPv6 b) started
> with zero return. But still ever since they started to roll out, they have
> been collecting some money back from the first IPv6 bit shipped.
>
> I’m too stupid to figure out how to get Excel to model this across the
> past 36 months, but if I am not mistaking in lineair (which it isn’t) you
> end with 86 million.
>
> Last question remains:
>
> - How much did it cost them and is 36 months a reasonable ROI?
>
> Or can we extend to 5 years (at which point you are around 225 million
> USD).
>
> - Is 225 million a reasonable cost estimate to get a network with 70
> million users to IPv6?
>
> MarcoH
>
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